[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 23 09:31:22 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 May. The visible
disc is spotless. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 23 to 25 May. A small disappearing
filament at ~0505 UT associated with a small active region at
S25E12 was observed in the GONG H-alpha images. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
The solar wind speed was at nominal levels on 22 May, varying
in the range 310 to 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied in the range of 1 to 7 nT and -6 to
5 nT, respectively. Solar wind parameters are expected to be
at nominal levels 23 to 25 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12102210
Cocos Island 2 11101110
Darwin 4 22102211
Townsville 4 22102211
Learmonth 5 22102310
Alice Springs 3 12102210
Gingin 4 11101320
Canberra 3 11102210
Hobart 3 11102210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00100210
Casey 5 22212220
Mawson 14 53212331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1311 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 7 Quiet
24 May 7 Quiet
25 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were mostly quiet. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 23 to 25 May with unsettled periods
possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 23 to 25 May. Sporadic E and spread F
may degrade conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted to enhanced in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 22 May. Occurrences of sporadic
E were observed mostly early evening and pre-dawn. Night spread
F observed at most Australian stations. Sporadic E and spread
F occurrences expected to continue with MUFs mostly near predicted
monthly values, 23 to 25 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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