[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 21 09:31:24 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 May. The visible 
disc currently has no numbered sunspot regions. Very low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 21 
to 23 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. On UT day 20 May, the solar wind speed was 
near its nominal to mildly elevated levels, varying in the range 
350 to 420 km/s. These mild enhancements are in response to a 
small equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective location 
on the solar disk. The total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 
4 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -2 nT 
and 2 nT, with no significant southward IMF Bz conditions. The 
solar wind is expected to remain at nominal to mild levels for 
next two UT days (21 and 22 May) as another small southern coronal 
hole may be becoming geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               0   11000000
      Townsville           0   10000001
      Learmonth            0   00000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   11000001
      Mawson               4   32000003

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1022 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     7    Quiet
22 May     7    Quiet
23 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 20 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian and Antarctic regions were at quiet levels. Mostly 
quiet and occasional unsettled conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 21-23 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three UT days, 21 to 23 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 May    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
22 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
23 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted to mildly enhanced 
levels in the Australian and Antarctic regions during UT day 
20 May. Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian 
stations. Mostly normal MUFs are expected for the next three 
UT days, 21 to 23 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    62900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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