[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 13 09:31:23 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 12 May. The visible 
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very Low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
13-15 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. On UT day 12 May, the solar wind speed was 
near its background values, varying in the range 300-330 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
in the ranges 0-6 nT and -4/+4 nT, respectively. Nominal solar 
wind conditions are expected for the next UT day, 13 May, then 
the solar wind may experience a moderate enhancement on UT days 
14-15 May due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01100101
      Cocos Island         1   01110001
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           2   01100102
      Learmonth            1   01100101
      Alice Springs        1   01100101
      Gingin               1   00100101
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               2   01101111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                3   22100111
      Mawson               8   22212124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2222 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     5    Quiet
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of an isolated 
                Active period
15 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 12 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region 
observed mainly Quiet levels, with Mawson station observing an 
isolated Active period. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to stay at mainly Quiet levels for the next UT day, 13 May, then 
may increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 14-15 May, 
with a chance of an isolated Active period on UT day 14 May, 
due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation are expected for the next 
three UT days, 13-15 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
14 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
15 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly at near predicted values to moderately 
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 12 May. 
Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian 
stations. Normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 
13-15 May, in the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    22100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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