[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 9 09:31:35 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 May. The visible 
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
09-11 May. Through UT day 08 May, the solar wind speed was near 
its background values, varying in the range 320-360 km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
in the ranges 3-5 nT and -4/+4 nT, respectively. The solar wind 
particle density varied from 4 ppcc to 12 ppcc. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. 
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected for 09-11 May with 
a possibility of mild rise late on 09 May and on 11 May due possible 
coronal hole effect.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Cocos Island         1   11001000
      Darwin               1   11101000
      Townsville           2   11111001
      Learmonth            1   11111000
      Alice Springs        1   10101000
      Gingin               1   11100000
      Canberra             0   01010000
      Hobart               1   01111000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey                3   13110001
      Mawson              10   22222015

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0221 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May     7    Quiet
10 May     7    Quiet
11 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 
08 May. Quiet conditions are expected on UT days 09-11 May with 
a possibility of some unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values. Significantly 
enhanced MUFs were observed mostly in the Southern Hemisphere 
during local night. Minor to moderate depressions were observed 
at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and in the equatorial 
regions. Occurrences of sporadic E were observed in the Australian 
region. Mostly normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT 
days (09-11 May).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
10 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
11 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to significantly 
enhanced in the Australian region. The enhancements were mostly 
observed during local night. Minor depressions were seen in the 
Northern Australian region during local day. Occurrences of sporadic 
E were observed. Normal MUFs are expected for the next three 
UT days (09-11 May) in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    26100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list