[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 8 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 May. The visible
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
08-10 May. Through UT day 07 May, the solar wind speed was near
its background values, varying in the range 300-340 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
in the ranges 1-5 nT and -4/+4 nT, respectively. The solar wind
particle density varied from 3 ppcc to 7 ppcc. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Nominal
solar wind conditions are expected for 08-10 May with a slight
possibility of mild rise late on 09 May due possible coronal
hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11122000
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 2 10122001
Townsville 4 11232001
Learmonth 3 11222000
Alice Springs 2 00122001
Gingin 3 11222000
Canberra 3 01131000
Hobart 3 01132000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 5 00143000
Casey 4 23221000
Mawson 7 32321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3201 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 7 Quiet
09 May 7 Quiet
10 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on
UT day 07 May. Quiet conditions are expected on UT days 08-10
May with a possibility of some unsettled periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values. Significantly
enhanced MUFs were observed mostly in the Southern Hemisphere.
Minor to moderate depressions were observed at high latitudes
in the Northern Hemisphere. Occurrences of sporadic E and spread-F
were observed in the Australian region. Mostly normal MUFs are
expected for the next three UT days (08-10 May).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 4 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 May 4 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 May 4 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to significantly
enhanced in the Australian region. Occurrences of sporadic E
and spread-F were observed. Normal MUFs are expected for the
next three UT days (08-10 May) in the Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 23000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list