[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 6 09:31:36 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 May. The visible
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days,
06-08 May. The solar wind speed was below 350 km/s on 05 May,
with total IMF 2 to 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range +4 to -6 nT. No CMEs observed in available images on 05
May. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected 06-08 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11110112
Cocos Island 3 11110211
Darwin 2 10110111
Townsville 3 11120112
Learmonth 4 11120222
Alice Springs 2 11110111
Gingin 3 10110222
Canberra 2 10110111
Hobart 3 11110112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00010101
Casey 3 11200221
Mawson 13 43120334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 7 Quiet
07 May 7 Quiet
08 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed on 05 May as there was no
CME impact. Quiet conditions expected 06-08 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions were mostly fair to normal. Mostly fair to
normal HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days,
06-08 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to enhanced.
Sporadic E observed at Niue 12-15 UT and Cocos Is 10-14 UT, sporadic
E and spread F observed at Darwin 13-20 UT, Learmonth 06-10 and
14-22 UT. Spread F at Brisbane 14-20 UT and Hobart 08-21 UT.
Conditions during night hours are likely to have been degraded.
Expect similar conditions 06-08 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 32600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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