[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 May 20 issued 2349 UT on 04 May 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 5 09:49:07 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 May. The visible
disc is spotless with numbered regions 2760 and 2763 and two
unnumbered plage regions. No regions are expected to return.
A small, slow moving CME was first observed in LASCO images on
03 May 2112 UT and may have an Earthward component. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days,
05-07 May. The solar wind speed was below 350 km/s on 04 May,
with total IMF 1 to 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range +/-5 nT. There is a chance solar wind parameters could
become disturbed on 05 May due to a CME that erupted from the
west limb on 29 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 21112101
Townsville 3 21112101
Learmonth 3 21112100
Alice Springs 3 11112101
Gingin 3 11112101
Canberra 2 11112100
Hobart 2 11112100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 6 23222111
Mawson 9 32212114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 12001213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 12 Quiet to active
06 May 7 Quiet
07 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The chance of a slow CME impact on 05 May may increase
activity. Some isolated active to minor storm periods are possible
if the event occurs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions were mostly fair to normal. Mostly fair to
normal HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days,
05-07 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to enhanced with some daytime depressions at Darwin
and Townsville. Spread F observed at night at Hobart, Brisbane,
Townsville and Darwin. Sporadic E observed at Darwin, Learmonth
in early eveining. Mostly fair to normal HF propagation conditions
are expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT
days, 05-07 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 21900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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