[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 6 10:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 05 March. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 06-08
March. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 05 March, the solar wind speed
continued declining, currently under 350 Km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) ranged around 6 nT and the north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) was mostly positive. The solar wind speed may increase
from current ambient levels to enhanced levels in the later half
of 06 March or on 07 March due to a possible connection with
high speed stream from a south polar extension coronal hole and
glancing blow of a weak CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11112110
Cocos Island 2 10112110
Darwin 3 11112110
Townsville 3 11112111
Learmonth 3 11112110
Alice Springs 3 11112110
Gingin 1 10001010
Canberra 1 00111000
Hobart 4 31111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 4 23211010
Mawson 5 23112110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 0211 422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
07 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
08 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 05 March was Quiet for the
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed isolated Unsettled
periods. Global geomagnetic activity may increase to Unsettled
levels, with a chance of isolated Active periods in the later
half of 06 March or on 07 March if the solar wind becomes enhanced
due to coronal hole effects and weak CME passage.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for today, 06 March. Possible degraded propagation conditions
on 07-08 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar -4 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced for the Australian region
on 05 March. Minor MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island region.
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels
of ionospheric support is expected for the next three UT days,
06-08 March. Mild MUFs depressions are possible for 07-08 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 31200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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