[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 01 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 2 10:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 01 March. There
are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Through
UT day 01 March, the solar wind speed ranged between 390 and
520 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 5.5 nT and
the north-south component of IMF (Bz) showed fluctuations in
the range +3/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters may stay enhanced during
UT days 02 to 03 March due to the effects of patchy coronal holes.
Very low levels of solar activity are forecast for the next three
UT days, 02 to 04 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Mostly quiet,
isolated unsettled periods
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21221101
Cocos Island 3 21120101
Darwin 3 22120101
Townsville 4 22121111
Learmonth 4 31221100
Alice Springs 3 21220101
Gingin 4 21121111
Canberra 3 21220100
Hobart 6 12231211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 11131000
Casey 13 44421112
Mawson 19 53332115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1012 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
03 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
04 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with isolated unsettled
periods in Australian region and quite to active conditions at
high southern hemisphere latitudes were observed on UT day, 01
March. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet
to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active periods
for the next two UT days, 02 to 03 March and then decline to
quiet to unsettled levels through UT day, 04 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 01 March
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of
minor to moderate enhancements as well as periods of minor depressions.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 02 to 04 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
regions for UT day 01 March were mostly near predicted monthly
values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements as
well as periods of minor depressions. MUFs in this region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next
three UT days, 02 to 04 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Feb
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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