[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 30 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 June. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
30 June to 02 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. During UT day 29 June, the
solar wind speed varied between 320 km/s and 360 km/s, the total
IMF (Bt) varied between 2 and 4 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) varied in the range +3/-3 nT. The solar wind particle density
varied between 3 ppcc and 6 ppcc during this time. During the
next three UT days, 30 June to 02 July, the solar wind speed
is expected to vary between its background levels and slightly
enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 21000011
Mawson 6 32100033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2201 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
01 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
02 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: On UT day 29 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated
unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next
three UT days, 30 June to 02 July, with small possibility of
isolated unsettled periods due to week coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted to moderately enhanced
levels on UT day 29 June. The enhancements were observed mostly
during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at
times over some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days,
30 June to 02 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 29 June. The enhancements
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and spread
F were observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days,
30 June to 02 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 37900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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