[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 21 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 22 09:31:24 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 June. Very 
low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 22-24 
June. There are currently no numbered active regions on the solar 
disk. No returning regions are expected. No Earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During 
UT day 21 June, the solar wind speed varied in the range 300 
km/s to 335 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 and 5 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mostly between 
-3 nT and +4 nT. The solar wind particle density varied between 
3 and 10 ppcc during this time. Solar wind conditions are expected 
to remain mostly at background levels on UT days 22 to 24 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11011100
      Cocos Island         2   11111100
      Darwin               1   11011001
      Townsville           2   11122000
      Learmonth            2   11021100
      Alice Springs        1   11011000
      Gingin               1   10010200
      Canberra             1   00111000
      Hobart               1   11011100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00021000
      Casey                2   11010220
      Mawson               4   11100132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2231 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     5    Quiet
23 Jun     5    Quiet
24 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 21 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian region and mainly quiet in the Antarctic region, 
with one isolated unsettled period recorded on one Antarctic 
station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet 
levels for UT days 22 to 24 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with minor to 
mild enhancements on UT day 21 June. Sporadic E was observed 
over some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly 
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 
22 to 24 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with minor to 
mild enhancements on UT day 21 June across the Australian regions. 
Sporadic E was observed over some Australian sites. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted 
to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 22 to 24 
June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:   14.3 p/cc  Temp:    25000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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