[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 21 09:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 June. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 21-23
June. There are currently no numbered active regions on the solar
disk. No returning regions are expected. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During
UT day 20 June, the solar wind first showed a gradual increase
from 325 km/s to 360 km/s by 04:30 UT and then showed a gradual
decrease to around 310 km/s by 23:00UT. During this time, the
total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 and 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied mostly between +1 nT and +4 nT, but
also stayed negative (up to -7 nT) between 02:00 UT and 08:00
Ut. The solar wind particle density varied between 6 and 20 ppcc.
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain mostly at background
levels on UT days 21 to 23 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22210000
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 3 22210000
Townsville 2 21210001
Learmonth 3 22210000
Alice Springs 3 22210000
Gingin 2 21200000
Canberra 2 21200000
Hobart 3 22210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 01210000
Casey 3 22211000
Mawson 14 52321214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 5 Quiet
22 Jun 5 Quiet
23 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 20 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region and mainly quiet in the Antarctic region,
with two isolated unsettled periods and one minor storm period
too. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at
quiet levels for UT days 21 to 23 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to moderately
enhanced levels on UT day 20 June. Sporadic E was observed over
some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted
to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 21 to 23
June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to moderately
enhanced levels on UT day 20 June across the Australian regions.
Sporadic E was observed over some Australian sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted
to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 21 to 23
June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 32300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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