[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 29 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 28 July. There
are currently two sunspot regions on the visible disc, region
2767(S22W18) and a new unnumbered region on the NE limb. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 29-31
July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. During UT day 28 July, the solar wind speed
range was 370-420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 3-5 nT,
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was mainly between
+/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near its nominal
levels during UT days 29-31 with a chance of slight enhancements
due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 10100000
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 1 10110000
Alice Springs 0 10100000
Gingin 1 10110110
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11001010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 5 22221120
Mawson 11 42330123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1110 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jul 5 Quiet
31 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 28 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet, with some isolated unsettled periods.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet during
the next three UT days, 29-31 July. Isolated unsettled periods
may be observed on 29 July due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 29-31 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 28 July.
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 29-31 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 57800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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