[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 28 09:31:26 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 27 July. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible disc, 
2767(S22W05). Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 
three UT days, 28-30 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. During UT day 27 July, the 
solar wind speed increased slightly throughout the day, currently 
around 440 km/s due to the arrival of HSS from a small coronal 
hole. The total IMF (Bt) was below 6 nT, and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be at background to slightly enhanced levels during 
UT days 28-30 due to weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01100000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   01100100
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Gingin               1   01100100
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Hobart               1   11100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Casey                5   23210111
      Mawson               8   33230013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1001 0102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 27 July. The Antarctic region observed mostly 
quiet levels, with unsettled periods at Mawson station. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled during 
the next three UT days, 28-30 July due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 28-30 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced on UT day 
27 July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days, 28-30 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    46100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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