[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 25 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 24 July. There
is one numbered region, AR2767 (S22 E34 at 22:45UT), on the visible
disk with one sunspot. Very low solar activity is expected for
the next three UT days, 25 to 27 July. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images in the
past 24 hours. On UT day 24 July, the solar wind speed gradually
increased from 300 km/s to 360 km/s by 05:00 UT and then stayed
between 360 and 380 km/s during the rest of the day. During this
day, the total IMF (Bt) increased from 2 nT to 10 nT by 05:00
UT and then stayed between 7 and 10 nT, the north-south IMF component
(Bz) varied in the range +10/-9 nT. Solar wind particle density
varied in the range 3 to 27 ppcc during this day. Solar wind
parameters are expected to show minor to moderate enhancements
for the next 3 UT days (25 to 27 July) due to possible coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 22222432
Cocos Island 6 22121321
Darwin 9 22222422
Townsville 10 22232422
Learmonth 13 22222532
Alice Springs 9 22222422
Gingin 10 12222432
Canberra 9 11222432
Hobart 10 12222432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 16 01343532
Casey 11 24222332
Mawson 42 14443666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2101 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 6 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 6 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 8 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active on UT day 24 July. The Antarctic region experienced
Quiet to minor storm conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly at unsettled levels on UT days 25-27
July due to the coronal hole effects. Isolated active periods
may also be possible on UT day 27 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately
enhanced on UT day 24 July. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 25 to 27
July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced on UT day
24 July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 25 to 27 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 17300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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