[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 24 09:31:29 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 23 July. There 
is one numbered region, AR2767 (S22 E47), on the visible disk 
with one sunspot. Very Low solar activity is expected for the 
next three UT days, 24-26 July. The slow moving CME observed 
in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A imagery on UT day 19 July may have 
a weak impact on Earth on 24 July. No new Earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images in the 
past 24 hours. On UT day 23 July, the solar wind speed range 
was 290-320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 1-5 nT, and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was between +/-3 nT. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to become moderately enhanced on 
UT day 24 July due to an equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk, combined with the possible weak impact 
of the CME on 24 July, then begin to return to background levels 
on 25 July. The solar wind may become moderately enhanced again 
on UT day 26 July due to a south polar extension coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11011000
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               1   01111001
      Townsville           2   21011001
      Learmonth            1   01111100
      Alice Springs        0   00001000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Hobart               1   11011100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                1   01111100
      Mawson               4   31111012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2101 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
Quiet on UT day 23 July. The Antarctic region experienced Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 24-26 July, 
with a chance of isolated Active periods on 24 July, due to the 
coronal hole effects, and a weak CME possibly impacting Earth 
on 24 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 24-26 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 23 
July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next three UT days, 24-26 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    15800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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