[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 19 09:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 July. The visible 
disc is spotless; no returning regions are expected. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. 
The solar wind speed range was 330 to 420 km/s. The total IMF 
range was 1 to 4 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was +2 to -2 nT. Very low solar activity is expected for the 
next three UT days, 19-21 July. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to be near nominal levels during the next three day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101000
      Cocos Island         0   10010000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           2   22101000
      Learmonth            1   11111000
      Alice Springs        1   11100000
      Gingin               2   21102000
      Hobart               1   11101000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   01001000
      Casey                3   22212000
      Mawson               8   32221104

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul     5    Quiet
20 Jul     5    Quiet
21 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 18 July. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected on 19-21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 19-21 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 18 July. 
The enhancements were mostly observed during local night. Sporadic 
E were observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next three UT days, 19-21 July. Sporadic E and spread F occurrence 
are expected over some sites.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    58200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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