[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 18 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 July. The visible
disc is spotless; no returning regions are expected. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
The solar wind speed range was 390 to 430 km/s. The total IMF
range was 2 to 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +4 to -4 nT. Very low solar activity is expected for the
next three UT days, 18-20 July. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be near nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11000110
Cocos Island 0 00000010
Darwin 1 01000011
Townsville 1 11000111
Learmonth 1 11000100
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000110
Canberra 1 110000--
Hobart 1 11000110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22101101
Mawson 4 22001122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1002 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 7 Quiet
19 Jul 7 Quiet
20 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 17 July. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected on 18-20 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 18-20 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 17 July.
The enhancements were mostly observed during local night. Sporadic
E were observed over several sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next three UT days, 18-20 July. Sporadic E and spread F occurrence
are expected over some sites.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 66300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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