[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 12 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 July. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disc (AR 2766
at N04W74), it has no sunspots. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 July. No earth-directed coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic
imagery up to 11/1524 UT. During UT day 11 July, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, under 350 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) varied between +/- 3, mostly neutral. During the next three
UT days, 12-14 July, the solar wind speed is expected to be slightly
enhanced due weak patchy coronal holes effects. Further enhancements
in the solar wind speed may be observed at the end of UT day
13 July and on 14 July should CME observed on 9 July UT arrive
at Earth.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 0 01000001
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 01000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 11100020
Mawson 3 30000012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a possible isolated Active
period.
14 Jul 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 11 July. The Antarctic region observed mostly
quiet levels, with one isolated unsettled period. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next
three UT days, 12-14 July due to weak coronal hole effects. Isolated
active periods may be observed at the end of UT day 13 July and
on 14 July should CME observed on 9 July UT arrive at Earth.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values to mildly enhanced on UT day 11 July. Sporadic E blaketing
observed at at Darwin and Cocos Island region between 18-22 UT.
Spread F and Sporadic E observed at times over some Australian
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 12-14
July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list