[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 11 09:31:26 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 July. There 
is currently one plage on the visible disc near (N05W54). Very 
low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 
July. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed 
in available coronagraphic imagery. During UT day 10 July, the 
solar wind speed was near its background levels, under 350 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
in the ranges 2-5 nT and +/-3 nT, respectively. Enhancements 
in the solar wind speed are possible at the end of UT day 11 
July and on 12 July due to coronal hole effects. A glancing blow 
from a CME observed on 9 July may be observed late on 13 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01100000
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           1   11110000
      Learmonth            0   01100000
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Gingin               0   00100000
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               0   01100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   01111010
      Mawson               5   11221122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1011 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul    15    Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active 
                periods.

COMMENT: On UT day 10 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three UT 
days, 11-13 July. Isolated active periods may be observed at 
the end of UT day 13 July should CME observed on 9 July UT arrive 
at Earth.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 11-13 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near Near 
predicted monthly values on UT day 10 July. Mild enhancement 
observed at Cocos Island region during local day. Sporadic E 
was observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days, 11-13 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    26300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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