[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 29 10:31:21 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 28 January. There
is currently one numbered region 2757 visible on the solar disc,
now at N03W26. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 29-31 January. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
UT day 28 January up to 1730 UT the solar wind speed and IMF
Bt were steady, varying in the ranges 310-330 km/s and 1-5 nT,
respectively. Then the solar wind speed has gradually increased
up to 360 km/s and IMF Bt has reached 8 nT. For 29-31 January,
the solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background
levels; however, it can reach 400 km/s due to relatively weak
coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11110222
Cocos Island 2 10010211
Darwin 4 11110222
Townsville 4 21110122
Learmonth 3 11100222
Alice Springs 4 11110222
Gingin 3 11100212
Canberra 2 00200111
Hobart 3 11210112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00100011
Casey 7 23310222
Mawson 7 33210122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1110 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 7 Quiet
30 Jan 7 Quiet
31 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 28 January was quiet for the
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed quiet to unsettled
conditions. For the next three UT days, 29-31 January, global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels
with a chance of isolated unsettled periods due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 29-31 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 28 January. Mild
MUFs depressions were observed in the Northern Australian region
during local day and in the equatorial region during local day
and night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian
sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for
the next three UT days, 29-31 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 40800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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