[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 28 10:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 27 January. There
is currently one numbered region 2757 visible on the solar disc,
now at N03W13. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 28-30 January. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at nominal levels,
under 350 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between 1-5 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in the range of +3/-3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near its background
levels for 28-30 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 4 121-----
Townsville 2 22100011
Learmonth 2 11100002
Alice Springs 2 11100002
Gingin 2 21100001
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 2 12200001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 8 33411011
Mawson 3 22201100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 7 Quiet
29 Jan 7 Quiet
30 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 27 January was quiet for the
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions. For the next three UT days, 28-30 January,
global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet
levels with a chance of isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 28-30 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 27 January. Minor
to moderate MUFs depressions were observed in the equatorial
region. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian
sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for
the next three UT days, 28-30 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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