[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 19 10:31:20 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 18 January. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc and no Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery
during the last 24 hours. During UT day 18 January, the solar
wind speed varied between 320 and 350 km/s, the total IMF Bt
in the range 1 to 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) in the range +3nT and -4nT. The solar wind particle density
varied between 2 and 12 ppcc during this time. A negative polarity
coronal hole may result in a slight increase in solar wind speed
from UT day 20 January. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days, 19 to 21 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 22100001
Cocos Island 2 22100001
Darwin 2 12101101
Townsville 4 22111112
Learmonth 3 22100112
Alice Springs 2 12100001
Gingin 2 21100001
Canberra 2 12200001
Hobart 3 12211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Casey 10 44321101
Mawson 5 23111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 5 Mostly quiet, some unsettled conditions possible.
20 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet across the Australian
regions through UT day, 18 January. In the Antarctic region geomagnetic
activity varied from quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods during this time. Mostly quiet to unsettled global
geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three UT
days (19 to 21 January).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 18 January with some periods of minor
to moderate depressions as well as periods of minor enhancements.
Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed over some stations.
Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next
three UT days, 19 to 21 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan -23 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 18 January
with some periods of minor to moderate depressions as well as
periods of minor enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were also
observed over some stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support
is expected for the next three UT days, 19 to 21 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 23700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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