[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 January 20 issued 2333 UT on 17 Jan 2020

Sat Jan 18 10:33:22 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 17 January. There 
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc and no Earth 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
During UT day 17 January, the solar wind speed varied between 
300 and 340 km/s, the total IMF Bt in the range 1 to 6 nT and 
the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) in the range +4nT and 
-4nT. The solar wind particle density varied between 3 and 7 
ppcc during this time. A negative polarity coronal hole may result 
in a slight increase in solar wind speed from UT day 20 January. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days, 18 to 20 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11201210
      Cocos Island         1   11100110
      Darwin               3   11101211
      Townsville           4   12201211
      Learmonth            4   12211211
      Alice Springs        3   11201210
      Gingin               2   11200210
      Canberra             2   01200200
      Hobart               3   02201200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   01100200
      Casey                8   23312212
      Mawson               8   32112322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        NA
           Planetary             NA   0211 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan     4    Quiet
19 Jan     4    Quiet
20 Jan     7    Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet across the Australian 
regions through UT day, 17 January. In the Antarctic region geomagnetic 
activity varied from quiet to unsettled levels during this time. 
Mostly quiet global geomagnetic conditions may be expected for 
the next three UT days (18 to 20 January). Some unsettled periods 
may also be observed on UT day 20 January due to the possible 
effect of a coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 17 January with some periods of minor 
to moderate depressions as well as periods of minor to moderate 
enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed over 
some stations. Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected 
for the next three UT days, 18 to 20 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Jan   -28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
19 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
20 Jan   -28    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 17 January 
with some periods of minor to moderate depressions as well as 
periods of minor to moderate enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences 
were also observed over some stations. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support is expected for the next three UT days, 18 to 20 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    60800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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