[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 7 10:31:32 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 06 January. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region visible on the solar 
disc, AR2755(S35E01) but has decayed over the period. A faint 
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery around 06/0100UT, unlikely 
to have an earth directed component. No other Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Very 
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 07-09 January. During UT day 06 January, the solar wind 
speed gradually decreased from 530 Km/s, currently around 460km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5 nT. The north-south component 
of IMF, Bz,fluctuated mostly between +/-3 nT. The solar wind 
is expected to continue decreasing today, 07 January, then become 
moderately enhanced on UT days 08-09 January due to coronal hole 
influences.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22110121
      Cocos Island         3   21110121
      Darwin               4   12110122
      Townsville           6   23110222
      Learmonth            4   32010121
      Alice Springs        4   22010122
      Gingin               4   32010121
      Canberra             5   23110121
      Hobart               5   23210121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   12100011
      Casey               16   45421122
      Mawson              23   44212264

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1110 2242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods.
09 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled.

COMMENT: On UT day 06 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
levels in the Australian region, with some isolated Unsettled 
periods. The Antarctic region observed mainly Unsettled to Active 
conditions, with some isolated Storm periods. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over 
the next three days, 07-09 January with a chance of an isolated 
Active period on 08 January due to expected moderate enhancements 
in the solar wind.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels over the next three UT days, 
07-09 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jan   -29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
08 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
09 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values to moderately depressed for the Australian region 
on 06 January. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. 
Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next 
three UT days, 07-09 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    84400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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