[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 6 10:31:26 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 05 January. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region, AR2755, visible on 
the solar disc. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 06-08 January. During UT day 05 January, 
the solar wind speed started the UT day around 340 km/s, then 
began to gradually increase, currently around 550 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) was initially steady around 8-9 nT, then began to increase 
after 05/0700 UT to fluctuate mainly between 4-14 nT, reaching 
a maximum of 14.6 nT at 05/1743 UT. The north-south component 
of IMF, Bz, started the UT day at low levels, then increased 
after 05/0500 UT to vary between -15 to 12 nT, reaching a minimum 
of -14.4 nT at 04/1745 UT. The solar wind is expected to remain 
at moderate to strong levels on UT days 06-08 January due to 
coronal hole influences.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11213332
      Cocos Island         7   01212332
      Darwin               7   00213332
      Townsville           8   11213332
      Learmonth           10   11223342
      Alice Springs        8   11213332
      Gingin               9   11112343
      Canberra             6   01212232
      Hobart               7   11213232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   00113231
      Casey               23   34543343
      Mawson              21   34323354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled, chance of isolated Active 
                periods
07 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled, chance of isolated Active 
                periods
08 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled, chance of isolated Active 
                periods

COMMENT: On UT day 05 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region, with isolated Active 
periods. The Antarctic region observed mainly Unsettled to Active 
conditions, with some isolated Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels with 
a chance of isolated Active periods on 06-08 January due to moderate 
enhancements in the solar wind.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels over the next three UT days, 
06-08 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jan   -24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
07 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
08 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 05 January. 
Minor depressions were observed during the local night in the 
Cocos Island region, and during the local day and night in the 
Southern Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Minor 
MUF depressions during the UT day. Sporadic-E occurrences were 
seen over some Australian ionosonde sites. In the Australian 
region, MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values 
with the possibility of Minor to Moderate depressions for the 
next three UT days, 06-08 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    52900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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