[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 Feb 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 17 10:31:31 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 16 February. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
17-19 February. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 16 February, the solar wind speed 
was at its background levels, ranging from 320 km/s to 375 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1-5 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +4/-3 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background levels 
for the next three UT days, 17-19 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   21001000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               2   21011000
      Townsville           2   20011010
      Learmonth            2   21011101
      Alice Springs        0   10001000
      Gingin               1   21000000
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                7   23321111
      Mawson               9   43222111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0002 2001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb     7    Quiet
18 Feb     7    Quiet
19 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 16 February were at 
quiet levels for the Australian region with Antarctic regions 
experiencing mostly quiet and a short-lived unsettled period. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for 
17-19 February with possible occasional unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 17-19 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Feb    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 16 February 
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian 
region. Periods of mild enhancements in MUFs were observed over 
most Australian region. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed 
at some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected 
for the next three days, 17-19 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    37800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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