[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Feb 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 16 10:31:22 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 15 February. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
16-18 February. A possible CME first seen in coronagraph imagery 
starting near 15/1100 UT is a far-side event and will not impact 
Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 15 February, the solar wind speed 
was at its background levels, ranging from 310 km/s to 380 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-6 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +4/-4 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly at background levels 
for the next three UT days, 16-18 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11122101
      Cocos Island         2   11112100
      Darwin               3   11112101
      Townsville           3   11122101
      Learmonth            4   11122112
      Alice Springs        3   11022101
      Gingin               4   11022112
      Canberra             4   01023111
      Hobart               3   01023101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   00033000
      Casey                9   24222122
      Mawson              12   43212233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb     7    Quiet
17 Feb     7    Quiet
18 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 15 February were at 
quiet levels for the Australian region with Antarctic regions 
experiencing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly quiet for 16-18 February with 
possible unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 16-18 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Feb    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 15 February 
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian 
region. Periods of mild enhancements in MUFs were observed in 
the Southern Australian region. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed 
at some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected 
for the next three days, 16-18 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    19600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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