[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 February 20 issued 2334 UT on 06 Feb 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 7 10:34:56 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 06 February. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days. On UT day 06 February, the solar wind became enhanced due 
to a high speed stream from a negative polarity southern hemisphere 
coronal hole. The solar wind speed increased from 345 km/s to 
620 km/s over the UT day. The total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum 
of 11 nT at 06/0512 UT and the north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) reached a minimum of -10 nT at 06/0516 UT. The solar wind 
is expected to remain enhanced on 07 February due to the influence 
of the CH HSS, then decrease on 08-09 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   23333243
      Cocos Island         9   22222242
      Darwin              10   13233232
      Townsville          13   23333233
      Learmonth           14   23333243
      Alice Springs       14   13333243
      Gingin              16   22233353
      Canberra            12   13333233
      Hobart              14   23334233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    16   12345232
      Casey               29   45543443
      Mawson              35   33633365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1112 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb    12    Unsettled to Active
08 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 6 February were mainly 
Quiet to Unsettled for the Australian region, with an isolated 
Active period in the later half of UT day. Antarctic regions 
experienced mainly Unsettled to Active conditions, with some 
isolated Minor to Major Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to remain at Unsettled to Active levels on 07 February 
due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity levels should 
return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 08-09 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for 
UT day 06 February with enhancements for both northern and southern 
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods for southern hemisphere 
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
with possible disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
08 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 06 February 
were mainly near predicted monthly values for Equatorial and 
Australian regions. Periods of enhancements in MUFs were observed 
in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Minor MUF 
depressions were observed in the Niue Island region during the 
local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at some sites. 
In the Australian region, MUFs are expected to remain near predicted 
monthly values with the possibility of Minor to Moderate depressions 
on the next UT day, 07 February, then returning to near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 08-09 February.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.5E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    93700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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