[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Feb 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 6 10:31:23 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 05 February. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days. On UT day 05 February, the solar wind speed varied between 
330-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1-7 nT and the 
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) between -6 and +5 nT. The 
solar wind may become moderately enhanced on 06 February due 
to a possible connection with a high speed stream from a south 
polar extension coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111101
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               2   11111100
      Townsville           3   11211110
      Learmonth            3   12121101
      Alice Springs        2   11111101
      Gingin               3   22111101
      Canberra             3   12211011
      Hobart               2   12211000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   11120000
      Casey               16   44522211
      Mawson              11   33232223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2211 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
07 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 05 February were Quiet 
for the Australian region, with Antarctic regions experiencing 
mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with Casey station observing 
Active to Minor Storm levels at the start of the UT day. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled levels, 
with a chance of isolated Active periods, on 06 February if the 
solar wind becomes enhanced due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic 
activity levels should return to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 
07-08 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed for 
UT day 05 February with enhancements for both northern and southern 
hemisphere as well as some depressed periods for southern hemisphere 
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
with possible disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Feb    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 05 February 
were mainly near predicted monthly values for Equatorial and 
Australian regions. Periods of enhancements in MUFs were observed 
in the Equatorial and Northern Australian regions. Minor MUF 
depressions were observed in the Cocos Island region during the 
local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at most sites. 
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    41500 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list