[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 12 10:31:41 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Dec             13 Dec             14 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              83/24              83/24

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 December. No 
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance 
of C-class flares during the next three UT days, 12 to 14 December. 
Through UT day 11 December, the solar wind speed mostly varied 
in the range 440 km/s to 510 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) remained 
stable between 4 and 6 nT and the north-south component of the 
IMF (Bz) varied in the range +5/-3 nT, staying close to the normal 
values during the second half of this UT day. Solar wind speed 
is expected to gradually decline through UT day 12 December and 
then stay at more nominal levels on UT days 13 and 14 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23221111
      Cocos Island         3   12111110
      Darwin               5   23121111
      Townsville           6   23221121
      Learmonth            7   33221211
      Alice Springs        6   23221211
      Gingin               6   32121220
      Canberra             6   23220121
      Hobart               5   23220111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   13100010
      Casey               21   45442332
      Mawson              17   54221143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   3200 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Dec     6    Quiet
14 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian and the Antarctic regions on UT day 
11 December. Four periods of active and 2 periods of minor storm 
conditions were also recorded in the Antarctic region on this 
day. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly 
quiet to unsettled on UT day 12 December and quiet on 13 and 
14 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: During UT day 11 December, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor depressions. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days, 12 to 14 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Dec     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: During UT day 11 December, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor 
depressions. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 
12 to 14 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 487 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   214000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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