[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 11 10:31:35 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              83/24              84/26

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 December. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2790 
and 2791. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
with a chance of C-class flares during the next three UT days, 
11-13 December. At the beginning of the UT day 10 December, most 
of the solar wind parameters were near their nominal levels. 
The solar wind speed was mildly enhanced, 450-480 km/s. A shock 
wave has arrived at 10/0130 UT and the solar wind speed reached 
570 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached 16 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -10/+11 nT. Then 
the solar wind speed and Bt gradually decreased to 450-490 km/s 
and 3-8 nT, respectively, while Bz was predominately positive, 
greatly reducing geomagnetic activity. During the next three 
UT days, 11-13 December, the solar wind speed is expected to 
return to its nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   42112112
      Cocos Island         5   32111112
      Darwin               7   42111112
      Townsville           8   42212112
      Learmonth           10   52112112
      Alice Springs        5   32111012
      Gingin               6   32112013
      Canberra             7   42212012
      Hobart               6   32212012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   32101001
      Casey               28   55633123
      Mawson              16   44212144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1220 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec     7    Quiet
13 Dec     7    Quiet

COMMENT: In the SWS magnetometer data for 10 Dec, a weak (7 nT) 
impulse was observed at 0209UT. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Australian region on 10 December; 
mostly quiet to minor storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic 
region. Upon the shock arrival at 10/0130 UT, IMF Bz remained 
predominantly northward, greatly reducing geomagnetic activity. 
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet 
during the next three UT days, 11-13 December. Unsettled periods 
are likely on 11 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 11-13 December. As a consequence of the recent increase in 
geomagnetic activity, mild to moderate depressions are likely, 
especially at high latitudes in the Southern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
12 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
13 Dec    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 10 December. Mild enhancements were 
seen in the Northern Australian regions during local night. MUFs 
in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days, 11-13 December. Mild 
to moderate depressions are likely as a consequence of the recent 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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