[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 9 10:31:40 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 December. There 
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disc, 2787, 
2789, 2790, and 2791; they remained relatively stable. No Earth 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance of C-class 
flares during the next three UT days, 09-11 December. On UT day 
08 December,the solar wind speed was near its nominal levels, 
varying mostly in the range 340-420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
varied mostly in the range 2-7 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-4 nT. On 9 December, the 
solar wind speed is expected to remain near its nominal levels 
until a high speed solar wind stream associated with a negative 
polarity coronal hole and the 7 December CME arrive; then the 
solar wind speed can increase up to 600 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         1   01110110
      Darwin               3   1--11111
      Townsville           3   11211111
      Learmonth            3   11121111
      Alice Springs        1   00111101
      Gingin               1   10110011
      Canberra             2   02211001
      Hobart               2   11121001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   01021001
      Casey               12   35322111
      Mawson              10   34122123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec    35    Active to Minor Storm
10 Dec    25    Active to Minor Storm
11 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 December 
and is current for 9-10 Dec. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on 08 December; mostly quiet 
to unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. 
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to active 
and minor storm levels on 09 December due to combined effects 
of the coronal hole and CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
10 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
11 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for 
09-11 December due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Dec    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.    
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec    35    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
11 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 08 December. Mild enhancements were 
seen in the Northern Australian regions during local night. MUFs 
in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly between near 
predicted monthly values and moderately enhanced levels for the 
next UT day, 09 December. Then, on 10-11 December, MUFs are expected 
to return to monthly predicted levels with possible mild to moderate 
depressions. Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 09-11 December due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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