[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 8 10:31:44 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 07 December with a 
single C7 flare from the region 2790 (now at S24W11) peaking 
at 1632UT. The other three numbered regions (2787, 2789, and 
2791) remained relatively stable. There was a CME associated 
with the abovementioned flare. Preliminary analysis shows that 
it can arrive at Earth at the beginning of 9 December. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three 
UT days, 08-10 December. On UT day 07 December,the solar wind 
speed was near its nominal levels, varying in the range 310-420 
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly in the range 2-7 nT and 
the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was mostly +/-6 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its nominal 
levels until 09 December when Earth is expected to connect with 
a high speed solar wind stream associated with a negative polarity 
coronal hole and the CME is expected to arrive; then the solar 
wind speed can increase up to 600 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110100
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               1   11110100
      Townsville           2   2111010-
      Learmonth            2   11110201
      Alice Springs        1   10110100
      Gingin               1   10100100
      Canberra             1   10110100
      Hobart               1   10210000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey               12   34431111
      Mawson               5   21221211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1111 2022     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec     7    Quiet
09 Dec    30    Active to Minor Storm
10 Dec    25    Active

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 07 December; quiet to active conditions were observed 
in Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to remain mostly quiet during the next UT day, 08 December. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to increase to active and minor storm levels 
on 09 December due to combined effects of the coronal hole and 
CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
10 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next UT day, 08 December. Degraded HF propagation conditions 
are expected for 09-10 December due to predicted increase in 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec    30    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 07 December. Mild enhancements were 
seen in the Northern Australian regions during local night. MUFs 
in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next UT day, 08 December. Mild to moderate 
enhancements are expected on 09 December. Degraded HF propagation 
conditions are expected on 09-10 December due to predicted increase 
in the geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    53500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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