[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 4 10:31:36 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Dec             05 Dec             06 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 03 December. 
Two low C-class flares were observed, a C1.7 (0156 UT) from region 
2786 (currently at S19W52) and a C1.2 (1000 UT) from region 2790 
(currently at S23E36). A slow CME has also been released with 
the C1.2 flare from region 2790. This slow CME has a good possibility 
to hit the earth late on UT day 07 Dec or early on 08 December 
giving mild to moderate strengthening to the solar wind stream. 
Through UT day 03 December, the solar wind speed varied mostly 
between around 360 and 420 km/s. During this day, the total IMF 
(Bt) varied in the ranges 3 to 6 nT and its north-south component 
(Bz) in the range +5/-4 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to show 
a gradual decline to more nominal values through UT day 04 December 
and stay at nominal levels through UT days 05 and 06 December. 
However, there is a possibility for the CME of 01 December to 
give a glancing interaction for a short time, probably on UT 
day 5 December and cause minor strengthening in the solar wind 
stream. Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels 
for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 December with a good chance 
of more C-class flares and some chance of M-class flares. ACE 
EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
03/1455UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10002201
      Cocos Island         2   11001200
      Darwin               2   00002201
      Townsville           3   11002211
      Learmonth            3   10002301
      Alice Springs        2   00002201
      Gingin               2   10002201
      Canberra             2   10002210
      Hobart               2   11002100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   00012100
      Casey               10   33422112
      Mawson               5   21102321

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   1020 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Dec     8    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled and active periods 
                possible
05 Dec     8    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled and active periods 
                possible
06 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
and quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic region were 
observed on UT day 03 December. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions 
are expected for UT days 04 to 06 December. However, there is 
small possibility of geomagnetic conditions to rise to unsettled 
and possibly active levels on 04 or 05 December if the CME of 
01 December gives a glancing blow.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to mild enhancements during UT day 03 December. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 
December. Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Dec    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to mild enhancements during 
UT day 03 December. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
levels for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 December. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    94900 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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