[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 December 20 issued 2333 UT on 02 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 3 10:33:05 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Dec             04 Dec             05 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 02 December. 
Two B-class flares were observed from region 2790 (currently 
at S23E51). The CME of 01 December is unlikely to hit the earth, 
but the possibility can not be completely ruled out. Through 
UT day 02 December, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 
around 390 and 450 km/s. During this day, the total IMF (Bt) 
varied in the ranges 2 to 7 nT and its north-south component 
(Bz) in the range +6/-3 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to show 
a gradual decline through UT day 03 December and stay at nominal 
levels through UT days 04 and 05 December. However, there is 
a small possibility for the CME of 01 December to give a glancing 
interaction for a short time, probably on UT day 5 December. 
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate level for 
the next three UT days, 03 to 05 December with a good chance 
of more C-class flares and some chance of M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         0   10100000
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           3   21110121
      Learmonth            2   10110111
      Alice Springs        1   10100011
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             1   01100010
      Hobart               1   10110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey               10   23421222
      Mawson               6   32211112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Dec     5    Quiet
04 Dec     5    Quiet
05 Dec    10    Mostly quiet, some unsettled and active periods 
                possible

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
and quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic region were 
observed on UT day 02 December. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions 
are expected for UT day 03 to 05 December. There is small possibility 
of geomagnetic conditions to rise to unsettled and possibly active 
levels on 05 December if the CME of 01 December gives a glancing 
blow.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to mild enhancements during UT day 02 December. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly 
enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 03 - 05 December. 
Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Dec    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to mild enhancements during 
UT day 02 December. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced levels 
for the next three UT days, 03 - 05 December. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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