[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 August 20 issued 2332 UT on 09 Aug 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 10 09:32:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 August. AR2770
at N22 W02 is stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph images. The solar wind speed range
was 317 to 461 km/s on 09 August with the total IMF (Bt) range
3 to 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range +4 to
-3 nT. Very low to low solar activity is expected for 10 to 12
August. No returning regions are expected. Solar wind parameters
are forecast to be near background levels 10 to 12 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 01010000
Cocos Island 0 00010000
Darwin 1 12000001
Townsville 1 01010001
Learmonth 0 10010000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00------
Hobart 1 01010001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22220001
Mawson 3 01111013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 7 Quiet
11 Aug 7 Quiet
12 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day, 09 August. Quiet conditions
are expected 10 to 12 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 10 to 12 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced on UT day 09
August. Sporadic E observed at Darwin 16-19 UT. Night spread
F at Townsville, Brisbane, Learmonth, and Norfolk Is. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced, 10 to 12 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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