[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 9 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 08 August with spotted
region AR2770 at N23 E10 producing a C1.5 flare at 0349 UT. Very
low to low solar activity is expected for 09 to 11 August. No
returning regions expected. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. The solar wind speed range
was 339 to 466 km/s on 08 August with the total IMF (Bt) range
3 to 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range +3 to
-4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be near background
levels 09 to 11 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12212000
Cocos Island 2 12111000
Darwin 2 12201000
Townsville 3 12211100
Learmonth 3 12212000
Alice Springs 2 12211000
Gingin 2 11112000
Canberra 2 11212000
Hobart 3 12212100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 01212100
Casey 6 23321100
Mawson 13 43221243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1100 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 7 Quiet
11 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian
region on UT day, 08 August. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Quiet conditions are
expected 09 to 11 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 09 to 11 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 10 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced on UT day 08
August. Sporadic E observed during night at Darwin, during afternoon
at Townsville and Norfolk Is., and pre-dawn at Canberra, Sydney,
Townsville. Night spread F at Brisbane, Learmonth. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values to mildly enhanced, 09 to 11 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 289000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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