[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 30 09:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 April. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 30 April to 02 May. The visible disc has two numbered
regions, AR2760 and AR2761. No returning regions are expected.
No Earth-bound CMEs were observed in the available LASCO and
STEREO images. During UT day 29 April, the solar wind speed has
decreased from 380 km/s to 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
in the range 2-4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
between -2 and +1 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay
mostly near its background values for the next three UT days,
30 April to 02 May, with the possibility of occasional enhancements
due to weak coronal hole influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 1 11000010
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 2 11000012
Learmonth 0 10000010
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Gingin 0 00000020
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 01001010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 23100010
Mawson 11 33111243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 3101 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 7 Quiet
01 May 7 Quiet
02 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 29 April, the geomagnetic activity in the
Australian region was at quiet levels. The Antarctic region observed
mostly quiet levels, with Mawson station observing unsettled
to active periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
stay mainly at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 30 April
to 02 May, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods due to
weak coronal hole influences.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements
on UT day 29 April. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 30 April to 02 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements
for the Australian regions on UT day 29 April. Sporadic E layers
were observed over most sites. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT
days, 30 April to 02 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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