[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Apr 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 29 09:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 April. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 29 April to 01 May. The visible disc has two numbered 
regions, AR2760 and AR2761. No returning regions are expected. 
No Earth-bound CMEs were observed in the available LASCO and 
STEREO images. During UT day 28 April, the solar wind speed varied 
between 370 and 430 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 
3-5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between 
-4 and +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly 
near its background values for the next three UT days, 29 April 
to 01 May, with the possibility of occasional enhancements due 
to weak coronal hole influences.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111201
      Cocos Island         2   11111101
      Darwin               3   21111201
      Townsville           4   21121201
      Learmonth            3   11111201
      Alice Springs        3   21111201
      Gingin               3   21011201
      Canberra             2   11021200
      Hobart               3   11022201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     4   10032200
      Casey                6   23221211
      Mawson              17   53221334

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3211 1222


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr     7    Quiet
30 Apr     7    Quiet
01 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 28 April, the geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were at quiet levels. The Antarctic region 
observed mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with Mawson station 
observing periods of active and minor storm levels. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to stay mainly at quiet levels for the 
next three UT days, 29 April to 01 May, with a chance of isolated 
unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole influences.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 28 April. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 29 April to 01 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr     4    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr     4    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 May     4    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
for the Australian regions on UT day 28 April. Sporadic E layers 
were observed over most sites. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions 
are expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT 
days, 29 April to 01 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6e+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    65100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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