[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 10 Sep 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 11 09:31:36 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 10 September. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
11-13 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 10 September, the 
solar wind speed was slightly enhanced, varying in the range 
450-520 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 to 7 
nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the 
range +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mainly 
at background to slightly enhanced levels for the next three 
UT days, 11-13 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11123000
      Cocos Island         1   01011000
      Darwin               4   11123001
      Townsville           3   11123000
      Learmonth            4   12123000
      Alice Springs        3   11023000
      Gingin               3   01023000
      Canberra             3   01123000
      Launceston           3   11123000
      Hobart               3   01123000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     8   11035000
      Casey                7   23323000
      Mawson              10   33332103

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3234 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Sep     5    Quiet
13 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were 
recorded in the Australian region on UT day 10 September. Mainly 
Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic region. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet 
levels during the next three UT days, 11-13 September. Isolated 
Unsettled periods are possible today, 11 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 11-13 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep   -15    Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 10 September in the Australian region. 
Mild depressions were observed local day across Northern Australian 
and Equatorial regions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were 
observed over some sites. For the next three UT days, 11-13 September, 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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