[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 31 10:31:39 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 30 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for UT days, 31 October to 02 November.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 30 October the solar wind speed was mostly
steady near 400 km/s. These moderately elevated solar wind was
in response to small patchy negative coronal holes now at geoeffective
location on the solar disk. The total IMF Bt varied between 8
nT to 13 nT and the north-south component of the IMF Bz varied
between -2 nT to +10 nT. The two day outlook (UT day 31 October
- 01 November) is for solar wind to remain between its nominal
to mildly elevated levels in response to the coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22212221
Cocos Island 6 22212221
Darwin 6 22212221
Townsville 9 23212332
Learmonth 8 22213232
Alice Springs 6 22212221
Canberra 6 22212221
Hobart 6 22212221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 11125311
Casey 19 34533233
Mawson 15 23223344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3310 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian/NZ region
was mostly at quiet on UT day 29 October. In the Antarctic regions,
the geomagnetic activity varied from quiet to active levels.
These mild disturbed geomagnetic conditions in high latitude
regions are in response to mildly elevated solar wind speed associated
with patchy small coronal holes. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels
of geomagnetic activity may be expected for today (31 October)
as the coronal hole effects persist. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions are expected for the subsequent two UT days (01-02
November).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed through
UT day 30 October. Minor to mild MUF depressions, especially
in mid- to high- latitude regions, may be expected through UT
days 31 October - 02 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were moderately depressed to near predicted monthly values
during UT day 30 October. The depressions are thought to be due
to very low level of solar ionising flux. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT
days, 31 October - 02 November, MUFs are expected to be between
moderately depressed to near predicted monthly values. Lower
HF frequencies will be less impacted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 26300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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