[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 29 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 30 10:31:39 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 29 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for UT days, 30 October to 01 November.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 29 October the solar wind speed ranged
from 450 km/s to 400 km/s, and decreasing in general. This was
in response to the waning effects of a positive polarity coronal
hole. Mild enhancement in solar wind speed and small perturbation
in IMF was observed towards the end of UT day, possibly due to
the glancing blow from the 25 Oct CME. The total IMF Bt varied
between 2 to 8 nT and the north-south component of the IMF Bz
varied between -4 to +6 nT. The two day outlook (UT day 30-31
October) is for solar wind to remain between its nominal to mildly
elevated levels in response to small patchy negative coronal
hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22101321
Cocos Island 4 21100311
Darwin 5 22001312
Townsville 6 22101322
Learmonth 7 32101322
Alice Springs 4 22001311
Canberra 5 22101321
Hobart 6 23101321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 22112421
Casey 13 34321233
Mawson 16 44212442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2332 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 5 Quiet
01 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian/NZ region
was at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day 29 October. In the
Antarctic regions, the geomagnetic activity varied from quiet
to active levels. These mild disturbed geomagnetic conditions
are in response to mildly elevated solar wind speed associated
with a waning positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected for
today (30 October) in response to another coronal hole reaching
geoeffective location on the solar disk. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions are expected for the subsequent two UT days (31 October
and 01 November).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed through
UT day 29 October. Minor to mild MUF depressions, especially
in mid- to high- latitude regions, may be expected through UT
days 30 October - 01 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were moderately depressed to near predicted monthly values
during UT day 29 October. The depressions are thought to be due
to very low level of solar ionising flux and recent disturbed
geomagnetic conditions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 30 October
- 01 November, MUFs are expected to be between moderately depressed
to near predicted monthly values. Lower HF frequencies will be
less impacted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 84700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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