[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Oct 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 9 10:31:48 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Oct             10 Oct             11 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 08 October. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
09-11 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 08 October, the solar wind 
speed ranged between 380 km/s and 410 km/s, the total IMF Bt 
varied between 1.5 and 5.8 nT and the north-south component of 
the IMF Bz varied between -3 to +3 nT. Mostly nominal solar wind 
speed is expected for the next three UT days, 09-11 October with 
the possibility of some enhancements on 9 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         1   11100110
      Darwin               2   11111110
      Townsville           3   11112111
      Learmonth            3   11111111
      Alice Springs        2   01111011
      Gingin               3   11021121
      Canberra             2   01121001
      Launceston           4   12122111
      Hobart               3   11122101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   01121000
      Casey               10   34322121
      Mawson              14   33222244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   0001 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Oct     7    Quiet with some possibility of unsettled periods
10 Oct     5    Quiet
11 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 08 October, the geomagnetic activity was at 
quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, 
geomagnetic activity was mostly between quiet and unsettled levels 
going up to active levels for a short period on one station. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet 
levels for the next 3 UT days (09-11 October), with some chance 
of unsettled conditions on UT day 9 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 08 October with some periods of 
minor to mild depressions. For the next 3 UT days, 09-11 October, 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Oct   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -5
Oct      -15
Nov      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Oct   -12    Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
08 October with some periods of minor to mild depressions. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the 
next 3 UT days, 09-11 October, MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values across the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    47500 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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