[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 07 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 8 10:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 07 October.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
08-10 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 07 October, the solar wind
speed ranged between 360 km/s and 390 km/s, the total IMF Bt
varied between 2.5 and 6 nT and the north-south component of
the IMF Bz varied between -5 to +5 nT, staying southwards for
most parts of the day. Mostly nominal solar wind speed is expected
for the next three UT days, 08-10 October with the possibility
of some enhancements on 8 and 9 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 10012321
Cocos Island 4 01101321
Darwin 3 11011211
Townsville 4 10112311
Learmonth 5 11112321
Alice Springs 4 10002321
Gingin 5 10002332
Canberra 3 00002311
Launceston 6 10013322
Hobart 5 10013321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 00024311
Casey 8 33221222
Mawson 16 32313353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1221 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 7 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
09 Oct 7 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
10 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 07 October, the geomagnetic activity was mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels in the Australian region. In the
Antarctic region, geomagnetic activity was mostly between quiet
and unsettled levels going up to active level for a short period
on one station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be
mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 UT days (08-10 October),
with some chance of unsettled conditions on UT days 8 and 9 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 07 October with some periods of
minor to moderate enhancements as well as periods of minor depressions.
For the next 3 UT days, 08-10 October, MUFs are expected to be
mainly near predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct -12 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
07 October with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements
as well as periods of minor depressions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT
days, 08-10 October, MUFs are expected to be mainly near predicted
monthly values across the Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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