[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 10 09:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours with
a single impulsive C6.7 flare from region 2740(N10E02) at 0551UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low on UT days, 10-12 May
with a chance of isolated C-class flares. The CME observed in
LASCO C2 imagery around 8/0439UT was further analysed, doesn't
appear to have any significant Earth directed component. No significant
CME activity recorded in association with the C6.7 flare at 09/0551UT
in available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 9 May, the solar
wind speed started around 320 km/s then increased from 09/0430UT,
currently around 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) increased after
09/0430UT to range between 2-8 nT while the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range of +/- 5 nT. The slightly
enhanced solar wind speed was most likely due to weak coronal
hole effects. The solar wind speed is expected to further increase
from late today, 10 May onward due to expected CME passage.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Cocos Island 2 01220011
Darwin 3 11221101
Townsville 5 12221112
Learmonth 4 11221112
Culgoora 3 0122110-
Gingin 4 11220112
Canberra 3 01221111
Launceston 4 11221111
Hobart 4 11221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 2 11210000
Casey 7 13222212
Mawson 18 23333145
Davis 10 03332133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 15 Quiet to Active
11 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled
12 May 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 9 May. Conditions may reach Unsettled
levels, with possible Active periods from late today, 10 May
due to expected CME passage.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
12 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during the last 24 hours
with minor MUF depressions over Cocos Island region after local
dawn. Sporadic E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde
stations. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 10-12 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 12500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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