[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 9 09:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
There are currently two numbered regions on the solar visible
disk, regions 2740(N07E13) and 2741(N03E45). Region 2740 has
simplified and decreased in size and region 2741 remained unremarkable.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low on UT days, 9-11 May
with a chance of isolated C-class flares. The CME observed in
LASCO C2 imagery after 06/2348UT was further analysed, appears
to have a weak Earth directed component with the estimated arrival
time late UT day 10 May. Two other CMEs were observed in LASCO
C2 Imagery around 7/1309UT and 8/0439UT. This will be analysed
for any Earth directed component. On UT day 8 May, the solar
wind was at ambient level, around 340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
mainly ~ 3 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was
mostly positive. The solar wind may become slightly enhanced
from late UT day 10 May due to possible CME passage.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 0 01000001
Cocos Island 0 00000001
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 01000001
Culgoora 0 01000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 01000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 12000001
Mawson 1 21000001
Davis 2 12110000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 7 Quiet
10 May 15 Quiet to Active
11 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 8 May. On UT day 09 May, the geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at Quiet levels. Conditions
may reach Unsettled levels, with possible Active periods from
late UT day, 10 May due to possible CME passage.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for all regions. Sporadic E layers observed
over some Australian ionosonde station. Mostly normal HF conditions
and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for the next three
UT days, 9-11 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 29800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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