[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 19 issued 2338 UT on 30 Apr 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 1 09:38:08 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 30 April. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 1-3 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 30 April, the
solar wind speed ranged between 290 km/s and 340 km/s, currently
around 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 7
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+/-4 nT. The solar wind is expected to become enhanced in the
later half of UT day 1 May the due to the influence of a recurrent
southern hemisphere coronal hole. The solar wind is expected
to remain enhanced on 2 May then gradually decline on 3 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11001121
Cocos Island 3 01000131
Darwin 3 11111121
Townsville 3 11111121
Learmonth 4 11012131
Alice Springs 2 00001121
Culgoora 2 11001121
Gingin 3 01011131
Canberra 2 10001121
Launceston 3 11002221
Hobart 3 11002121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00001110
Casey 8 23222132
Mawson 24 43221265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2201 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 13 Quiet to Active
02 May 15 Unsettled to Active
03 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 30 April, with some sites experiencing
an isolated Unsettled period. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated minor storm period.
On UT day 1 May, global geomagnetic activity is expected to start
at Quiet levels, then increase to Unsettled to Active levels
due to effects associated with a recurrent coronal hole. Unsettled
to Active levels are expected to continue on UT day 2 May, then
decline to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 3 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next UT day, 1 May, with a
chance of minor MUF depressions on UT days 2-3 May due to an
expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 3 Near predicted monthly values
02 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
03 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Sporadic E layers
were observed over most of the Australian region. Mostly normal
HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for
the next UT day, 1 May, in the Australian/NZ regions, with a
chance of minor MUF depressions on UT days 2-3 May due to an
expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 35400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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