[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 March 19 issued 2347 UT on 17 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 18 10:47:58 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 17th March. The visible
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CME's
observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw)
was slightly elevated during the first half of the UT day, gradually
decreasing from 450km/s at 00UT to be 375km/s at the time of
this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was predominantly
southward for the first half of the UT day, with prolonged sustained
southward Bz ranging between -2nT and -7nT. From 15UT onwards
Bz has fluctuated between +4nT and -2nT. Solar wind speed is
expected to remain at ambient levels over the next 24-36 hours.
An expected increase in Vsw on 19Mar is possible due to the influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a positive polarity equatorial
located coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain Very
Low for the next 3 days with only slight chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 32322201
Cocos Island 5 32221200
Darwin 6 32222201
Townsville 8 32223301
Learmonth 7 32322201
Alice Springs 7 32322200
Culgoora 6 32222201
Gingin 9 32323211
Canberra 7 32322200
Launceston 10 32333301
Hobart 9 32332300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 19 43454300
Casey 12 53321211
Mawson 30 65533323
Davis 19 53533221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 1313 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
20 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 17 March and
is current for 17-18 Mar. Unsettled to Quiet conditions observed
for the Australian/NZ region on 17Mar and conditions ranging
from Minor Storm to Unsettled for Antarctic regions due to coronal
hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 18Mar.
Unsettled conditions with possible Active periods expected for
19Mar due to coronal hole activity while Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for 20Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 17Mar. Occasional
enhancements for Low latitudes to slightly depressed MUFs at
mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the
chance of significantly depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity on 19Mar-20Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for AUS/NZ region on
17Mar with slightly depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions
during local day and enhanced ionospheric support for Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions during local night. Disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with the chance of further MUF depressions
for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 79700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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