[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 June 19 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jun 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 19 09:31:31 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
During this period the solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 
330 km/s, total IMF Bt varied mostly between 2.5 and 5.5 nT, 
the Bz component of IMF varied between +4.5 and -3.5 nT and the 
particle density varied between 3 ppcc and 11 ppcc. There are 
no sunspots on the visible solar disk. Due to the effect of some 
fragmented negative polarity coronal holes, solar wind stream 
may get slightly strengthened at times for the next two UT days 
(19 to 20 June). Solar activity is expected to stay at very low 
levels for the next three UT days (19 to 21 June).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00001110
      Cocos Island         1   00001110
      Darwin               1   11001110
      Townsville           2   11001111
      Learmonth            1   00001120
      Alice Springs        0   00001010
      Culgoora             0   00001010
      Gingin               1   00000021
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Launceston           1   00001111
      Hobart               0   00000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   00000120
      Mawson               6   20000043
      Davis               10   01100154

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   0111 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity across Australian regions stayed 
at quiet levels through UT day 18 June. Due to the effects of 
fragmented small negative polarity coronal holes, global geomagnetic 
activity may rise to unsettled levels on UT days 19 and 20 June. 
Global geomagnetic activity may be expected to return to quiet 
levels by UT day 21 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed near the predicted 
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
during UT day 18 June. MUFs may be expected to stay around the 
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (19 to 21 
June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      2
Jun      -11
Jul      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    -8    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    -7    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    -4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the Aus/NZ regions, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
stayed near the predicted monthly values with some periods of 
minor to moderate enhancements during UT day 18 June. MUFs in 
Aus/NZ regions may be expected to stay around the predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days (19 to 21 June).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    18500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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